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Prediction for CME (2024-10-08T06:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-08T06:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33844/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery, and is only visible in STEREO A COR2 after the leading edge is out of the field of view due to a data gap from 2024-10-08T03:38Z to 09:23Z. The source is a large filament eruption centered near S25W30 which begins to erupt, deflecting southward, around 2024-10-08T05:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent opening of field lines is visible over the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at the time of the eruption, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form around 06:30Z in SDO AIA131, 171, and 193 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T20:40Z (-4.89h, +4.53h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/10/08 05:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 10:30Z ; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction
POS Difference: 3:10
POS Midpoint: 12:05Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.82
Travel Time: ~9.82 * 6:25 = 63:00

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-10T20:40Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/08 22:37Z

Lead Time: 45.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-08T22:42Z

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